POLY//HYDRA

Prediction Market Intelligence · Multi-Headed Analysis · 72M Trades

LIVE

Expected Value · Formula 1

EV = (P_win × Payout) − (P_lose × Cost) Enter the market price and your probability estimate to see if the trade is worth taking.

Market Price (YES contract)

12%

Your Probability Estimate

20%

Expected Value

—

per $1 risked

ROI

—

percent return

Edge

—

prob vs market

Net Odds (b)

—

(1−price)/price

Payout if WIN

—

profit per $1

Breakeven Prob

—

min to be +EV

Mispricing (δ) · Formula 2 · 72M Trade Dataset

δ = Actual Win Rate − Implied Probability Longshot bias: low-probability contracts are systematically overpriced. Smart money sells these, buys near-certainties.

Price	Implied Prob	Actual Win Rate	Mispricing (δ)	Return on $1	Bias

Your Contract Price

Contract Price

15%

Estimated Structural Bias

—

Kelly Criterion · Formula 3

f* = (p × b − q) / b b = (1 − price) / price | Use fractional Kelly (25–50%) to reduce variance.

Market Price

12%

Your Probability

20%

Bankroll ($)

Kelly Fraction: 25%

Full Kelly = maximum growth but high volatility. 25% Kelly is common for professionals.

Full Kelly f*

—

of bankroll

Fractional Kelly

—

adjusted for safety

Bet Size

—

dollars to wager

Net Odds (b)

—

payout multiple

Max Loss

—

if trade fails

Max Gain

—

if trade wins

BANKROLL ALLOCATION

$0 $5,000

Bayesian Updating · Formula 4

Posterior Odds = Prior Odds × Likelihood Ratio LR > 1: evidence supports the event. LR < 1: evidence against. Most traders anchor too hard or panic-flip.

Prior Probability (your original estimate)

20%

Likelihood Ratio (strength of new evidence)

2.0×

LR Presets

0.2×

Strong against

0.5×

Weak against

1.5×

Weak for

3.0×

Strong for

Prior Probability

—

before evidence

Posterior Probability

—

after updating

Probability Shift

—

Δ from prior

PROBABILITY CHAIN

Live Market Scanner

Bankroll ($)

Min Volume ($)

Expires within: 90 days

Min Win Prob: 50%

Min EV: 0.005

Min ROI: 1%

SCAN EVERY:

🔔 Desktop notification fires when ≥5/10 agents confirm a signal · Keep this tab open

📱 NTFY TOPIC:

🔔 ALERT HISTORY (THIS SESSION)

No confirmed alerts yet this session.

Configure parameters above and click Scan to find opportunities.

🔒 Wallet Connection

Connect MetaMask on Polygon to view balance and execute trades directly

⚡ Auto-Trade Settings

When enabled, new signals trigger a MetaMask confirmation to place real orders on Polymarket CLOB.

Auto-Execute New Signals

OFF

Max Bet Per Trade: $20

Min Edge Score to Auto-Execute: 3

⚠ Auto-trade executes real money positions. Each trade requires MetaMask confirmation. Start with small amounts.

🔐 Polymarket CLOB Setup

Polymarket's order book requires API credentials derived from your wallet signature. Click below to generate them.

Sign once to enable order placement on Polymarket's CLOB.

CLOB API Key

Not generated

📋 Wallet Trade History

Connect wallet to see trade history

🤖 MicroSwarm Consensus Engine

10 AI analyst personas evaluate every trade before it enters the portfolio. Each agent applies a different lens — quantitative, domain expertise, contrarian, risk management, data science, market microstructure, retail sentiment, order-book pressure, and volume momentum. Trades must pass crowd consensus to be accepted.

1.5x 📊Quant Analyst

Math edge, market efficiency, base rates

1.3x 🎓Domain Expert

Sports, politics, crypto context

1.2x 💣Contrarian

Fades crowd bias and consensus

1.0x 🛡Risk Mgr

Downside scenarios, tail risks

1.2x 📈Data Sci

Base rates, regression to mean

1.0x ⚙Mkt Micro

Volume, spreads, order flow

0.8x 👥Retail

Crowd momentum to fade

1.1x 📖OB Pressure

Order-book bid/ask imbalance

1.0x ⚡Vol Momentum

24h repricing vs. total volume

1.2x 💰Trend Analysis

Weekly/monthly Binance S&D zones (crypto)

How It Works

1️⃣

SCAN

GitHub Action scans 500 markets every 4 hours. Filters by min probability, EV, and ROI.

2️⃣

EVALUATE

Each qualifying trade is sent to all 10 agents. Each returns a probability estimate with reasoning.

3️⃣

CONSENSUS

Weighted average of all agents = crowd consensus probability. Higher-weight agents have more influence.

4️⃣

FILTER

Only trades where consensus agrees with the direction AND confidence is medium/high enter the portfolio.

10 agents active Server-side consensus runs via GitHub Actions every 15m | Client-side preview on trade tickets

P&L Tracker — Real Bot Performance

Live data from Polymarket API — real fills, resolved P&L, open position values.

TRACKING: 0x2782…1320 (@phydra bot) · REAL FILLS ONLY · P&L FROM RESOLVED MARKETS

IDLE Starting auto-scan... Next: --:--

Realized P&L

$0.00

awaiting market resolution

USDC Deployed

0 filled · 0 open

Win Rate (Real)

—

pending resolution

EQUITY CURVE

TRADE LOG

No trades logged yet. Auto-scan will start shortly.